StratDeck

Tonight's thread

AI Infrastructure led the week.

From the 24 Sept, 00:27 UTC run. Market, sector, stock, decision: follow the thread down, or step off at any branch.

1 · MarketWhat changed?

The largest names led this week; the average stock lagged.

  • Cap-weighted+3.4%
  • Average stock+1.9%
  • Trending up64%
  • Rose / fell143 / 126

Computed by rule from the 24 Sept run · 270 stocks, 7D. “Trending up” is above the 200-day average.

Step off here

Sector · EnergyEnergy pulled back inside an uptrend92% of its 13 names still trend up, but 10 fell over 7 days. XOM -4.1% and CVX -4.0% did most of the damage.Sector · UtilitiesUtilities has the weakest read on the mapOnly 13% of its 8 names trend up, and it moved -0.9% over 7 days. Biggest drags: NEE -2.5%, DUK -1.9% and SO -1.8%.

2 · ThemeWhere did it come from?

Leads because +10.3% against a market at +1.9%

AI Infrastructure rose 10.3% against 1.9% for the market.

  • Theme, 7D+10.3%
  • Market, 7D+1.9%
  • Rose52 of 55
  • Trending up43 of 55
  1. ALAB+43.9%
  2. ARM+37.8%
  3. CRDO+28.0%
  4. INTC+27.5%
  5. AMD+23.7%

The average stock in each, 7D. Picked by rule: the sector or theme furthest from the market this week, rises and falls alike, from 5 names up. News never picks it.

Step off here

Theme · AI InfrastructureAI Infrastructure, segment by segment55 names on the boardSector · TechnologyTechnology rose 7.5% this week.36 of its 62 names are AI Infrastructure names; the other 26 averaged +0.3%.In the news · 24 SeptCoreWeave closes $4.2 billion convertible notes deal, 40% above initial proposalBlockspace · Neoclouds

3 · SegmentWhat drove it?

Compute did the most to lift AI Infrastructure: its 9 names rose 15.6% on average, against 9.3% for the rest of AI Infrastructure.

  • Compute, 7D+15.6%
  • Rest of AI Infrastructure+9.3%
  • Rose9 of 9
  1. ARM+37.8%
  2. INTC+27.5%
  3. AMD+23.7%
  4. MRVL+18.3%
  5. TSM+9.5%
  6. NVDA+7.9%
  7. AVGO+7.6%
  8. QCOM+5.6%

And 1 more on AI Infrastructure. The average stock in each, 7D. Picked by rule: the segment that did the most of AI Infrastructure's distance from the market, from 3 names up, unless three of its five biggest moves sit in one segment.

Step off here

Biggest lift · AI InfrastructureNVDA added 1.3 points to AI Infrastructure's weekNVIDIA Corporation, +7.9% over 7D. Weighted by size, no AI Infrastructure name added more.Biggest drag · AI InfrastructureCSCO took under 0.1 points off AI Infrastructure's weekCisco Systems, Inc., -3.3% over 7D. Weighted by size, no AI Infrastructure name took more.

4 · StockWhich name tells it?

ARMArm Holdings plc333.20USD+3.19%

ARM rose 37.8% this week. Analysts' average target sits 13.4% below the price.

  • Above its 200-day average since 20 Mar, 44.9% clear of it.
  • Price-to-book of 41.2 against revenue growth in the 34th percentile of Technology.
  • Dearer than 95% of Technology on next year's earnings; not scored on yield, which it carries no figure for.
  • No setup grades it, so it is here as part of the universe the screen runs over rather than as a name the board is putting forward.
  • Fwd P/E108.9
  • Sector median22.3
  • Revenue growth+22.4%

The checks

  • Pass: Above its 200-day average333.20 vs 230.01
  • Fail: Revenue growing slower than the Technology median+22.4% vs +25.8%
  • Fail: Analysts' mean target at or below the price288.70, -13.4%
  • Fail: Forward P/E above the Technology median108.9× vs 22.3×
  • Pass: Beat the estimate last quarterEPS 0.45 vs 0.40, 29 Jul

Reports next on 4 Nov, in 41 days.

Read the full story on ARM

Picked by rule: the biggest move up in Compute, within 40% either way so a bad close cannot be the story. The checks are the stock page's, from the same figures.

Step off here

Alternative · SemiconductorsNVDA · NVIDIA Corporation+7.9% this week, passes neither setup.Alternative · SemiconductorsTSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited+9.5% this week, passes the Value setup only.Alternative · SemiconductorsAVGO · Broadcom Inc.+7.6% this week, passes the Value setup only.CompareCompare ARM, NVDA and TSMWhat you pay against what it grows, side by side.

5 · DecideWhat deserves a closer look?

13 names pass both setups tonight. CRDO, in the same industry, is one of them; ARM is not.

The 9 largest of 13. Open them in The Terminal

Keep CRDO in view:

The Terminal's own shortlist, largest first, up to 9. Research context, not advice.

Step off here

Best value · TechnologySMCI · Super Micro Computer, Inc.Forward P/E of 7.8 against revenue growth in the 85th percentile of Technology.

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