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AI Infrastructure

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Infrastructure Market Sentiment

Healthy but fading

From the last monitor run · 15 Sept, 02:30 UTC

AI Infra Trade Ideas

Opinionated - EMA200 - AI

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Opinionated - Value - AI

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  • ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.Top PicksPrice is at or near a rising EMA200. Supports longs.Strong buy
  • ETNEaton Corp plcTop PicksPrice is at or near a rising EMA200. Supports longs.Buy
  • COHRCoherent Corp.Top PicksPrice is at or near a ranging EMA200. Longs supported on higher quality setups.Buy

What's changed?

Briefing for 11 Sept

Past briefings

  • A broad, sharp sell-off hit AI infrastructure names across every subsector despite the group's underlying breadth still improving on the week.

    Servers, semicap, compute, dc-infrastructure, networking, memory and neocloud names all posted single-day declines of 4-6% simultaneously (HPE, CRWV, LRCX, VRT, INTC, ORCL, DELL, ALAB, NBIS, MU, CRDO, WDC), suggesting a broad de-risking event across the trade rather than a stock-specific issue, even though several of these same names carry bullish fundamental news (Oracle backlog, Dell orders).

    Compute · Semiconductor equipment · Memory · Networking · Servers · Data-centre infrastructure · Hyperscalers · Neoclouds· HPE, CRWV, LRCX, VRT, INTC, ORCL, DELL, ALAB, NBIS, MU, CRDO, WDC

  • Vertiv and CoreWeave crossed below their 200 EMA today, and Constellation Energy joined them, while dc-infrastructure and power breadth remain stuck at 50%.

    These are trend-line breaks in the physical build-out (power, cooling, data centers) side of the trade, the two subsectors that have shown zero improvement in breadth this week even as compute and semicap breadth rose sharply -- a divergence between chip/hardware momentum and the power/infrastructure layer that ultimately gates AI capacity.

    Data-centre infrastructure · Power · Neoclouds· VRT, CRWV, CEG

  • Semicap and hyperscaler breadth jumped this week (semicap 80%→100%, hyperscaler 60%→80%) even as compute breadth slipped (100%→89%) after Broadcom crossed below its 200 EMA.

    The rotation shows strength concentrating in equipment makers and hyperscalers rather than the chip names themselves; Broadcom's break below trend is notable given its size within compute, while Qualcomm and Meta both crossed above their 200 EMA in the same window, pointing to idiosyncratic winners inside otherwise mixed subsectors.

    Compute · Semiconductor equipment · Hyperscalers· AVGO, QCOM, META

  • Applied Materials and Arista Networks each guided to roughly 40% AI-driven growth, and ASML/TSMC are targeting a 40% high-NA lithography productivity gain but on a 2033 timeline.

    Equipment and networking suppliers are pointing to comparable growth rates from AI demand, but the lithography roadmap underscores that some of the enabling technology for next-generation chip production is still years out, a supply-side constraint worth tracking against near-term demand claims.

    Compute · Semiconductor equipment · Networking· AMAT, ANET, ASML.AS, TSM· Source 1· Source 2· Source 3

  • Two macro catalysts land within the next week: the August CPI print on 2026-09-11 and the FOMC meeting with projections on 2026-09-15.

    Both are described as the primary macro inputs to the discount rate applied to long-duration AI capex and to how AI infrastructure multiples are set broadly, making them the key near-term events to watch regardless of company-specific news flow.

    Theme-wide

Research feed

The stories that mattered, from the 11 Sept run. Every claim links to its source.

Filings

8-K and 6-K current reports, from EDGAR. Every entry links to the filing.

No filings yet — they appear after the research run's first collection.

AI sector strength

Share Compute in AI Infrastructure
89% above 200 EMA
1W-4.5%1M-6.0%8/9 above (+1 on the week)

Next earnings: TSM · 15 Oct

Best value

Share Best Value

SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.

Stronger than peersCheapest grower of the 50 Technology names
97
  • Fwd P/E6.994
  • P/B2.498
  • P/E11.3100
  • Rev growth+93.2%85

Not scored on Yield. The rest were reweighted to make up the difference.

Catalysts

The next 42 days: earnings from the last monitor run, plus the curated calendar.

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