Steady exchanges cost more than fast-growing investment banks

Investment banks, brokers and asset managers grew revenue fastest, yet the typical stock in all three fell over three months while exchanges rose.

• Investment banks: typical stock down 16.7% over 3 months · typical revenue growth +33.3%
• 2026-10-20 [GS]: Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter net earnings of $5.29 billion Why it matters: Goldman's result is the first read on trading and advisory income for the investment banks this season. Nine-month net revenues of $56.24 billion show how large the year has been, yet the investment bank group has stayed weak, so the market is not treating strong earnings as enough.

Exchanges and data rose 10.0% over three months, and Nasdaq, London Stock Exchange Group, Intercontinental Exchange and CME rose together when Nasdaq reported.

• Exchanges and data: typical stock up 10.0% over 3 months
• 2026-10-23 [NDAQ, LSEG.L, ICE, CME]: Nasdaq reported third-quarter results, and exchange and data stocks rose together, with Nasdaq up 7.5%. Why it matters: London Stock Exchange Group closed 7.7% higher, Intercontinental Exchange 3.9% and CME Group 3.5%. The gains across the group suggest the market read the Nasdaq results as good news for the whole exchange and data business, not only for Nasdaq. The whole group is now strengthening. Intercontinental Exchange reports on 29 October.

The typical exchange stock costs 22.0 times next year's expected profit, far above investment banks, whose revenue swings with how busy markets are.

• Exchanges and data: typical price against next year's expected earnings 22.0x
• Investment banks: typical price against next year's expected earnings 12.5x

Results already split within the group, as Moody's missed estimates and fell nearly 3% while CME posted record third-quarter revenue.

• Exchanges and data: typical revenue growth +10.6%
• The typical stock across the whole theme: revenue growth +11.6%
• 2026-10-22 [MCO, CME]: Moody's missed third-quarter estimates and its shares fell nearly 3%, while CME Group reported its highest third-quarter revenue on record. Why it matters: Within data and exchange companies the results split. Moody's kept its full-year guidance, which limits the damage from the miss. CME's record revenue shows the trading side of the group is doing well.

Watch S&P Global's first results without its Mobility business on 27 October, and Robinhood that day for the sold-off growth side.

• 2026-10-27: S&P Global (SPGI, Exchanges and data) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-29: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, Exchanges and data) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-27: Robinhood (HOOD, Brokers) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-26 [SPGI]: S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility business and filed pro forma financial statements showing the slimmer company. Why it matters: S&P Global is now a more focused ratings and data business, and the filing gives the first picture of its financials without Mobility. It reports earnings on 27 October, where those numbers can be compared. The exchanges and data group has been strengthening across all its stocks.