Financials: insurers in favour, the fast growers out of it

Over three months the typical investment bank fell 16.0%, the worst of any segment, while insurers, with the slowest sales growth, edged higher.

• Investment banks (stage: Markets), 2 stocks: GS, MS. Combined market cap $535.3bn, 6.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -4.1%, 1 month -9.5%, 3 months -16.0%, 6 months -6.0%, this year so far +1.4%. 0 of 2 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 14.0x. Typical revenue growth: +33.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +77.4%. Typical operating margin: 39.1%. Typical net margin: 28.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 23.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +19.1%. How this business works: Advises on mergers, underwrites share and bond sales, and trades for clients. Revenue swings with how busy markets are, so a wave of deals or volatile markets lifts it and quiet markets cut it.
• Brokers (stage: Markets), 3 stocks: SCHW, IBKR, HOOD. Combined market cap $380.3bn, 4.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -7.7%, 1 month -14.9%, 3 months -11.2%, 6 months +0.3%, this year so far -9.4%. 0 of 3 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 24.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 31.0x. Typical revenue growth: +31.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +42.6%. Typical operating margin: 52.7%. Typical net margin: 42.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 21.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.1%. How this business works: Gives investors accounts to buy and sell shares, and earns from trading and from interest on the cash customers hold. Busy markets and higher rates both help, and new account numbers show momentum.
• Asset managers (stage: Investing), 4 stocks: BLK, BX, KKR, APO. Combined market cap $445.9bn, 5.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -5.8%, 1 month -11.9%, 3 months -7.9%, 6 months -13.7%, this year so far -25.4%. 1 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 25%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 13.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 27.4x. Typical revenue growth: +33.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +48.6%. Typical operating margin: 27.3%. Typical net margin: 18.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 31.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.3%. How this business works: Invests money for pension funds, institutions and savers, and earns fees on what it manages. Private-markets firms such as Blackstone, KKR and Apollo also earn performance fees when they sell investments, so busy deal markets matter.
• Insurers (stage: Insurance), 12 stocks: BRK-B, PGR, CB, AIG, MET, ALL, ALV.DE, CS.PA, ZURN.SW, LGEN.L, AV.L, PRU.L. Combined market cap $1.86tn, 22.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.2%, 1 month +1.5%, 3 months +1.4%, 6 months +9.9%, this year so far +9.4%. 11 of 12 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 92%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 13.7x. Typical revenue growth: +10.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +5.4%. Typical operating margin: 14.4%. Typical net margin: 12.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 5.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +4.6%. How this business works: Collects premiums, pays claims and invests the money in between. Profit depends on pricing policies above the cost of claims, which disasters can upset, and on what the invested money earns, which rises with interest rates.
• US banks (stage: Lending), 4 stocks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC. Combined market cap $1.70tn, 20.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -4.8%, 1 month -6.3%, 3 months -4.8%, 6 months -2.6%, this year so far -0.9%. 1 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 25%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 10.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 11.9x. Typical revenue growth: +11.8%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +40.7%. Typical operating margin: 34.1%. Typical net margin: 26.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 17.0%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +21.3%. How this business works: Takes deposits and lends them out, and the largest also trade and advise on deals. Profit depends on the gap between what loans earn and what deposits cost, which interest rates set, and on how many loans go bad.
• UK banks (stage: Lending), 5 stocks: HSBA.L, BARC.L, LLOY.L, NWG.L, STAN.L. Combined market cap $598.9bn, 7.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -2.2%, 1 month -7.6%, 3 months -5.6%, 6 months +3.5%, this year so far +4.9%. 3 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 60%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 8.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 12.9x. Typical revenue growth: +14.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +23.9%. Typical operating margin: 45.0%. Typical net margin: 27.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 16.3%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +17.4%. How this business works: The UK's high-street and international banks. Mortgages and savings dominate the domestic lenders, so Bank of England rates drive what they earn, while HSBC and Standard Chartered make most of their money in Asia.
• European banks (stage: Lending), 6 stocks: SAN.MC, BNP.PA, INGA.AS, UCG.MI, DBK.DE, UBSG.SW. Combined market cap $723.2bn, 8.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.2%, 1 month -7.0%, 3 months -5.2%, 6 months +9.5%, this year so far +14.4%. 4 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 67%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 9.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 11.8x. Typical revenue growth: +10.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +19.7%. Typical operating margin: 40.9%. Typical net margin: 30.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +15.3%. How this business works: Europe's largest lenders, from retail banking to investment banking. ECB rates set their lending margins, and many are returning large sums to shareholders after years when regulators held them back.
• Exchanges and data (stage: Markets), 6 stocks: ICE, CME, NDAQ, LSEG.L, SPGI, MCO. Combined market cap $519.4bn, 6.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +1.5%, 1 month +4.1%, 3 months +0.1%, 6 months +2.5%, this year so far -2.9%. 5 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 83%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 20.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 26.6x. Typical revenue growth: +10.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +15.9%. Typical operating margin: 42.8%. Typical net margin: 30.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +17.5%. How this business works: Runs stock and futures exchanges, and sells indexes, ratings and market data. Much of the revenue is recurring subscriptions, and trading volumes rise when markets are volatile, so these often hold up when other financials fall.
• Payments and cards (stage: Payments), 6 stocks: V, MA, AXP, PYPL, COF, SOFI. Combined market cap $1.70tn, 20.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +1.2%, 1 month +4.8%, 3 months -1.7%, 6 months +4.2%, this year so far -7.9%. 3 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 50%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 16.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 24.2x. Typical revenue growth: +11.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +11.0%. Typical operating margin: 27.0%. Typical net margin: 36.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 20.7%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +13.0%. How this business works: Runs card networks or lends on cards. Visa and Mastercard earn a small fee on every payment and carry no lending risk, so they follow consumer spending, while card lenders also depend on borrowers repaying.

Every insurer but one is in an uptrend, while the investment banks stayed weak even after a strong Goldman Sachs quarter.

• Insurers (stage: Insurance), 12 stocks: BRK-B, PGR, CB, AIG, MET, ALL, ALV.DE, CS.PA, ZURN.SW, LGEN.L, AV.L, PRU.L. Combined market cap $1.86tn, 22.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.2%, 1 month +1.5%, 3 months +1.4%, 6 months +9.9%, this year so far +9.4%. 11 of 12 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 92%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 13.7x. Typical revenue growth: +10.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +5.4%. Typical operating margin: 14.4%. Typical net margin: 12.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 5.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +4.6%. How this business works: Collects premiums, pays claims and invests the money in between. Profit depends on pricing policies above the cost of claims, which disasters can upset, and on what the invested money earns, which rises with interest rates.
• Exchanges and data (stage: Markets), 6 stocks: ICE, CME, NDAQ, LSEG.L, SPGI, MCO. Combined market cap $519.4bn, 6.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +1.5%, 1 month +4.1%, 3 months +0.1%, 6 months +2.5%, this year so far -2.9%. 5 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 83%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 20.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 26.6x. Typical revenue growth: +10.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +15.9%. Typical operating margin: 42.8%. Typical net margin: 30.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +17.5%. How this business works: Runs stock and futures exchanges, and sells indexes, ratings and market data. Much of the revenue is recurring subscriptions, and trading volumes rise when markets are volatile, so these often hold up when other financials fall.
• Brokers (stage: Markets), 3 stocks: SCHW, IBKR, HOOD. Combined market cap $380.3bn, 4.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -7.7%, 1 month -14.9%, 3 months -11.2%, 6 months +0.3%, this year so far -9.4%. 0 of 3 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 24.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 31.0x. Typical revenue growth: +31.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +42.6%. Typical operating margin: 52.7%. Typical net margin: 42.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 21.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.1%. How this business works: Gives investors accounts to buy and sell shares, and earns from trading and from interest on the cash customers hold. Busy markets and higher rates both help, and new account numbers show momentum.
• Investment banks (stage: Markets), 2 stocks: GS, MS. Combined market cap $535.3bn, 6.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -4.1%, 1 month -9.5%, 3 months -16.0%, 6 months -6.0%, this year so far +1.4%. 0 of 2 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 14.0x. Typical revenue growth: +33.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +77.4%. Typical operating margin: 39.1%. Typical net margin: 28.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 23.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +19.1%. How this business works: Advises on mergers, underwrites share and bond sales, and trades for clients. Revenue swings with how busy markets are, so a wave of deals or volatile markets lifts it and quiet markets cut it.
• 2026-10-20 [GS]: Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter net earnings of $5.29 billion Why it matters: Goldman's result is the first read on trading and advisory income for the investment banks this season. Nine-month net revenues of $56.24 billion show how large the year has been, yet the investment bank group has stayed weak, so the market is not treating strong earnings as enough.

The typical investment bank costs 12.5 times next year's expected profit, only a little more than insurers, though its profit growth is far faster.

• Investment banks (stage: Markets), 2 stocks: GS, MS. Combined market cap $535.3bn, 6.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -4.1%, 1 month -9.5%, 3 months -16.0%, 6 months -6.0%, this year so far +1.4%. 0 of 2 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 14.0x. Typical revenue growth: +33.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +77.4%. Typical operating margin: 39.1%. Typical net margin: 28.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 23.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +19.1%. How this business works: Advises on mergers, underwrites share and bond sales, and trades for clients. Revenue swings with how busy markets are, so a wave of deals or volatile markets lifts it and quiet markets cut it.
• Insurers (stage: Insurance), 12 stocks: BRK-B, PGR, CB, AIG, MET, ALL, ALV.DE, CS.PA, ZURN.SW, LGEN.L, AV.L, PRU.L. Combined market cap $1.86tn, 22.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.2%, 1 month +1.5%, 3 months +1.4%, 6 months +9.9%, this year so far +9.4%. 11 of 12 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 92%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 13.7x. Typical revenue growth: +10.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +5.4%. Typical operating margin: 14.4%. Typical net margin: 12.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 5.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +4.6%. How this business works: Collects premiums, pays claims and invests the money in between. Profit depends on pricing policies above the cost of claims, which disasters can upset, and on what the invested money earns, which rises with interest rates.

The typical insurer's earnings per share grew just 5.4%, and a report finds more crashed cars are being written off.

• Insurers (stage: Insurance), 12 stocks: BRK-B, PGR, CB, AIG, MET, ALL, ALV.DE, CS.PA, ZURN.SW, LGEN.L, AV.L, PRU.L. Combined market cap $1.86tn, 22.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.2%, 1 month +1.5%, 3 months +1.4%, 6 months +9.9%, this year so far +9.4%. 11 of 12 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 92%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 13.7x. Typical revenue growth: +10.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +5.4%. Typical operating margin: 14.4%. Typical net margin: 12.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 5.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +4.6%. How this business works: Collects premiums, pays claims and invests the money in between. Profit depends on pricing policies above the cost of claims, which disasters can upset, and on what the invested money earns, which rises with interest rates.
• 2026-10-19 [PGR, CB]: Progressive published its September results as a report says more cars are being written off after accidents. Why it matters: A report finds total loss frequency in auto insurance is climbing and more drivers are paying for repairs themselves. That points to claims costs and customer behaviour that auto insurers have to price for. Insurers as a group are in strong shape, so this is a detail to watch inside the group and not a sign of broad weakness. Chubb reports on 2026-10-20.

For insurers, Chubb reports on 20 October, then AIG and Allstate in early November: watch whether written-off cars and weather losses push claims costs up.

• 2026-10-22: Blackstone (BX, Asset managers) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-20: Chubb (CB, Insurers) reports earnings.
• 2026-11-03: AIG (AIG, Insurers) reports earnings.
• 2026-11-04: Allstate (ALL, Insurers) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-20 [BX]: Blackstone raised $8.7 billion for a clean energy fund, while a $1.3 billion loan on its apartment properties moved to special servicing Why it matters: Fundraising shows investors still give Blackstone new money, while the loan transfer shows stress in apartment property debt, a risk for firms with real estate exposure. Blackstone reports earnings on 22 October, when its fee income and property commentary will be in focus.
• 2026-10-19 [PGR, CB]: Progressive published its September results as a report says more cars are being written off after accidents. Why it matters: A report finds total loss frequency in auto insurance is climbing and more drivers are paying for repairs themselves. That points to claims costs and customer behaviour that auto insurers have to price for. Insurers as a group are in strong shape, so this is a detail to watch inside the group and not a sign of broad weakness. Chubb reports on 2026-10-20.
• 2026-10-17 [ALL, PGR, CB]: Allstate reported $220 million of September catastrophe losses, and AM Best turned its outlook positive on AmTrust's insurers. Why it matters: Allstate's third-quarter catastrophe losses reached $1.65 billion, the weather cost that drives swings in home and auto insurer profits. The AM Best outlook change on AmTrust is a separate, positive credit signal. Chubb reports on October 20, so the next set of insurer numbers is close.