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StratDeckWritten by a modelYahoo FinanceSEC EDGAR

The week's story · Week of 12 Oct

Drone hype fades while dull contractors lead over three months

What is the Defence & Space theme?

  1. 01

    The surprise

    Washington is calling for mass drone production, and drone stocks keep falling anyway.

    Show the evidence

    On the day Hegseth pushed for mass drone production, AeroVironment closed lower, and the typical drone stock is down 49.2% this year.

    • 2026-10-15 [AVAV]: Hegseth pushed for $50B in mass drone production and a generational rise in defense investment, yet AeroVironment closed 5.1% lower. Why it matters: The Pentagon's rhetoric on drones and autonomy was strong, and the Army widened its drone marketplace to 33 nations. The listed drone name still fell, so the policy signal did not translate into support for the stock today. These are statements of need, not funded awards to a named company.
    • 2026-10-14, Defense News: Pentagon needs $50B for mass drone production, Hegseth says. Hegseth says the Pentagon needs $50 billion for mass drone production. No specific company is named in the headline. Source
    • 2026-10-14, Breaking Defense: Hegseth uses AUSA spotlight to push autonomy, ‘generational’ defense investment. Hegseth used an AUSA appearance to call for greater autonomy and what he called a generational increase in defense investment, per Breaking Defense. Source
    • Drones and autonomy (stage: Weapons), 2 stocks: KTOS, AVAV. Combined market cap $13.5bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -9.7%, 1 month -19.4%, 3 months -17.7%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -49.2%. 0 of 2 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 31.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 231.3x. Typical revenue growth: +18.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +0.0%. Typical operating margin: -1.2%. Typical net margin: -4.1%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 70.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +116.3%. How this business works: Makes uncrewed aircraft and the systems that fly them. The companies are small beside the primes, and sales arrive as a few large contract awards, so results can swing sharply from one quarter to the next.
    • AeroVironment (AVAV), Drones and autonomy. Market cap $6.1bn, 0.1% of the theme. Price change: 1 day -5.1%, 7 days -13.2%, 1 month -21.4%, 3 months -14.6%, 6 months -39.2%, this year so far -50.1%. In a downtrend: 34.7% below its 200-day line, on that side since 2026-02-20. 70.5% below its 52-week high. Price is 27.2x next year's expected earnings. No figure for price against the last year's earnings. Revenue growth, latest quarter on a year before: +5.7%. Operating margin -2.3% of sales. Net margin -10.1% of sales. Analysts' average target is +79.5% from the last close (21 analysts, consensus buy).
  2. 02

    Where the money went

    Over three months, plain government IT contractors have done better than every other part of defence.

    Show the evidence

    Their typical stock rose 13.2%, the only segment up, though it still sits below where it started the year.

    • Software and services (stage: Software), 7 stocks: PLTR, BAH, LDOS, CACI, SAIC, PSN, BBAI. Combined market cap $531.2bn, 10.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.8%, 1 month -8.8%, 3 months +13.2%, 6 months -11.3%, this year so far -12.8%. 3 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 43%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.2x. Typical revenue growth: +7.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -6.6%. Typical operating margin: 10.0%. Typical net margin: 5.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 34.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +20.7%. How this business works: Sells software, analysis and IT services to defence and intelligence agencies. Most are contractors paid for their staff's time on government contracts, with thin, steady profits tied to the US budget. A few sell software instead and are priced very differently.
    • Primes (stage: Platforms), 9 stocks: LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, BA, BA.L, AIR.PA, LDO.MI, AM.PA. Combined market cap $975.4bn, 20.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.0%, 1 month -5.8%, 3 months -4.8%, 6 months -14.0%, this year so far +1.2%. 0 of 9 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 18.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 23.6x. Typical revenue growth: +10.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +21.0%. Typical operating margin: 10.4%. Typical net margin: 8.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 21.7%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +24.3%. How this business works: The lead contractors governments order aircraft, missiles and whole systems from. Work comes as contracts lasting many years, so the orders already signed show what is ahead, and profit depends on delivering fixed-price programmes without overruns. Some, such as Airbus and Boeing, also build airliners, so their shares move with air travel as well as with defence budgets.
    • Naval (stage: Platforms), 5 stocks: HII, BWXT, TKMS.DE, FCT.MI, BAB.L. Combined market cap $39.4bn, 0.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +1.5%, 1 month -5.5%, 3 months -6.6%, 6 months -27.7%, this year so far -21.9%. 0 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 14.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 23.2x. Typical revenue growth: +10.9%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +14.1%. Typical operating margin: 6.7%. Typical net margin: 4.1%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 42.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +42.1%. How this business works: Builds and maintains warships and submarines, and the nuclear parts inside them. Programmes run for decades and a yard can only build so many hulls at once, so shipyard space and skilled workers can limit growth as much as orders do.
    • Land and munitions (stage: Weapons), 6 stocks: RHM.DE, R3NK.DE, KOG.OL, OSK, CHG.L, CSG.AS. Combined market cap $108.5bn, 2.2% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.9%, 1 month -7.4%, 3 months -3.9%, 6 months -30.0%, this year so far +2.7%. 0 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 17.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 36.5x. Typical revenue growth: +12.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -7.6%. Typical operating margin: 12.2%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 41.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +49.5%. How this business works: Makes armoured vehicles, artillery, ammunition and missiles. Ammunition is used up and has to be restocked, so demand rises quickly when governments rebuild their stockpiles, and much of it depends on European defence budgets.
    • Drones and autonomy (stage: Weapons), 2 stocks: KTOS, AVAV. Combined market cap $13.5bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -9.7%, 1 month -19.4%, 3 months -17.7%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -49.2%. 0 of 2 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 31.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 231.3x. Typical revenue growth: +18.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +0.0%. Typical operating margin: -1.2%. Typical net margin: -4.1%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 70.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +116.3%. How this business works: Makes uncrewed aircraft and the systems that fly them. The companies are small beside the primes, and sales arrive as a few large contract awards, so results can swing sharply from one quarter to the next.
    • Aero engines (stage: Enablers), 4 stocks: GE, RR.L, SAF.PA, MTX.DE. Combined market cap $633.2bn, 13.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -3.8%, 1 month -3.8%, 3 months -3.4%, 6 months +2.5%, this year so far +3.2%. 2 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 50%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 25.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 35.0x. Typical revenue growth: +18.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -39.2%. Typical operating margin: 17.6%. Typical net margin: 12.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 14.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +24.6%. How this business works: Makes jet engines for military and civil aircraft. Most of the profit comes from servicing engines already in the air, over decades, so it follows how much aircraft fly more than how many new ones are ordered. Civil aviation is the larger part of the business, so these engine makers move with airline traffic as much as with defence budgets.
    • Components (stage: Enablers), 5 stocks: HWM, TDG, HEI, ARXS, AADX. Combined market cap $213.8bn, 4.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +0.9%, 1 month -1.7%, 3 months -15.1%, 6 months -12.9%, this year so far -7.7%. 0 of 3 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 33.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 48.3x. Typical revenue growth: +24.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +32.5%. Typical operating margin: 25.1%. Typical net margin: 16.4%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 24.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +31.2%. How this business works: Makes the specialised parts that go into aircraft and defence systems, airliners as much as military aircraft. Many parts are certified for one aircraft and have few other suppliers, and replacement parts sold over an aircraft's life earn more than the originals.
    • Electronics (stage: Enablers), 10 stocks: LHX, HO.PA, HAG.DE, SAAB-B.ST, ESLT, DRS, CW, TDY, MRCY, QQ.L. Combined market cap $235.3bn, 4.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +0.1%, 1 month -2.9%, 3 months -3.2%, 6 months -13.8%, this year so far +4.7%. 1 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 10%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 26.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 31.0x. Typical revenue growth: +9.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +27.9%. Typical operating margin: 11.1%. Typical net margin: 7.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 27.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.7%. How this business works: Makes the sensors, radars, radios and electronic-warfare systems fitted to aircraft, ships and vehicles. An upgrade can be fitted to equipment already in service, so spending here can rise without any new platforms being ordered.
    • Space (stage: Space), 11 stocks: SPCX, RKLB, ASTS, PL, IRDM, LUNR, RDW, FLY, VOYG, KRMN, ECHO. Combined market cap $2.11tn, 43.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.8%, 1 month -13.2%, 3 months -18.7%, 6 months -42.3%, this year so far -21.5%. 1 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 10%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 31.7x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 78.0x. Typical revenue growth: +62.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +32.5%. Typical operating margin: -18.1%. Typical net margin: -38.7%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 67.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +76.3%. How this business works: Launches rockets and builds and operates satellites. Many of these companies are young and not yet profitable, and they depend on a small number of launches or government contracts going well.
    • 2026-10-09 [SAIC, BAH, LDOS, BBAI]: Government IT and services names rallied: SAIC up 6.2%, Booz Allen Hamilton up 6.1% and Leidos up 5.0%, while BigBear.ai fell 3.6%. Why it matters: The gains in the three larger services contractors stand out against weakness elsewhere in the pack, and BigBear.ai moved the other way. The pack gives no catalyst for the rally, so the cause is not established. The software-services group held firm over the week, making it one of the stronger corners of the universe.
    • Best price change over 3 months, of 59 stocks with a figure: Palantir (PLTR, Software and services) +50.2%; CACI (CACI, Software and services) +28.0%; Arxis (ARXS, Components) +23.3%; SAIC (SAIC, Software and services) +14.5%; Saab (SAAB-B.ST, Electronics) +14.3%.
  3. 03

    What is priced in

    The rebound has not made contractors dear: they remain the cheapest part of defence.

    Show the evidence

    Their typical price is 12 times next year's expected profit, most are staff-time contractors with thin, steady margins, and earnings are shrinking.

    • Software and services (stage: Software), 7 stocks: PLTR, BAH, LDOS, CACI, SAIC, PSN, BBAI. Combined market cap $531.2bn, 10.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.8%, 1 month -8.8%, 3 months +13.2%, 6 months -11.3%, this year so far -12.8%. 3 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 43%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.2x. Typical revenue growth: +7.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -6.6%. Typical operating margin: 10.0%. Typical net margin: 5.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 34.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +20.7%. How this business works: Sells software, analysis and IT services to defence and intelligence agencies. Most are contractors paid for their staff's time on government contracts, with thin, steady profits tied to the US budget. A few sell software instead and are priced very differently.
    • Primes (stage: Platforms), 9 stocks: LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, BA, BA.L, AIR.PA, LDO.MI, AM.PA. Combined market cap $975.4bn, 20.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.0%, 1 month -5.8%, 3 months -4.8%, 6 months -14.0%, this year so far +1.2%. 0 of 9 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 18.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 23.6x. Typical revenue growth: +10.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +21.0%. Typical operating margin: 10.4%. Typical net margin: 8.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 21.7%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +24.3%. How this business works: The lead contractors governments order aircraft, missiles and whole systems from. Work comes as contracts lasting many years, so the orders already signed show what is ahead, and profit depends on delivering fixed-price programmes without overruns. Some, such as Airbus and Boeing, also build airliners, so their shares move with air travel as well as with defence budgets.
    • Naval (stage: Platforms), 5 stocks: HII, BWXT, TKMS.DE, FCT.MI, BAB.L. Combined market cap $39.4bn, 0.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +1.5%, 1 month -5.5%, 3 months -6.6%, 6 months -27.7%, this year so far -21.9%. 0 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 14.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 23.2x. Typical revenue growth: +10.9%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +14.1%. Typical operating margin: 6.7%. Typical net margin: 4.1%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 42.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +42.1%. How this business works: Builds and maintains warships and submarines, and the nuclear parts inside them. Programmes run for decades and a yard can only build so many hulls at once, so shipyard space and skilled workers can limit growth as much as orders do.
    • Land and munitions (stage: Weapons), 6 stocks: RHM.DE, R3NK.DE, KOG.OL, OSK, CHG.L, CSG.AS. Combined market cap $108.5bn, 2.2% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.9%, 1 month -7.4%, 3 months -3.9%, 6 months -30.0%, this year so far +2.7%. 0 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 17.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 36.5x. Typical revenue growth: +12.5%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -7.6%. Typical operating margin: 12.2%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 41.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +49.5%. How this business works: Makes armoured vehicles, artillery, ammunition and missiles. Ammunition is used up and has to be restocked, so demand rises quickly when governments rebuild their stockpiles, and much of it depends on European defence budgets.
    • Drones and autonomy (stage: Weapons), 2 stocks: KTOS, AVAV. Combined market cap $13.5bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -9.7%, 1 month -19.4%, 3 months -17.7%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -49.2%. 0 of 2 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 31.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 231.3x. Typical revenue growth: +18.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +0.0%. Typical operating margin: -1.2%. Typical net margin: -4.1%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 70.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +116.3%. How this business works: Makes uncrewed aircraft and the systems that fly them. The companies are small beside the primes, and sales arrive as a few large contract awards, so results can swing sharply from one quarter to the next.
    • Aero engines (stage: Enablers), 4 stocks: GE, RR.L, SAF.PA, MTX.DE. Combined market cap $633.2bn, 13.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -3.8%, 1 month -3.8%, 3 months -3.4%, 6 months +2.5%, this year so far +3.2%. 2 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 50%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 25.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 35.0x. Typical revenue growth: +18.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -39.2%. Typical operating margin: 17.6%. Typical net margin: 12.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 14.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +24.6%. How this business works: Makes jet engines for military and civil aircraft. Most of the profit comes from servicing engines already in the air, over decades, so it follows how much aircraft fly more than how many new ones are ordered. Civil aviation is the larger part of the business, so these engine makers move with airline traffic as much as with defence budgets.
    • Components (stage: Enablers), 5 stocks: HWM, TDG, HEI, ARXS, AADX. Combined market cap $213.8bn, 4.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +0.9%, 1 month -1.7%, 3 months -15.1%, 6 months -12.9%, this year so far -7.7%. 0 of 3 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 33.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 48.3x. Typical revenue growth: +24.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +32.5%. Typical operating margin: 25.1%. Typical net margin: 16.4%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 24.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +31.2%. How this business works: Makes the specialised parts that go into aircraft and defence systems, airliners as much as military aircraft. Many parts are certified for one aircraft and have few other suppliers, and replacement parts sold over an aircraft's life earn more than the originals.
    • Electronics (stage: Enablers), 10 stocks: LHX, HO.PA, HAG.DE, SAAB-B.ST, ESLT, DRS, CW, TDY, MRCY, QQ.L. Combined market cap $235.3bn, 4.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +0.1%, 1 month -2.9%, 3 months -3.2%, 6 months -13.8%, this year so far +4.7%. 1 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 10%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 26.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 31.0x. Typical revenue growth: +9.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +27.9%. Typical operating margin: 11.1%. Typical net margin: 7.0%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 27.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.7%. How this business works: Makes the sensors, radars, radios and electronic-warfare systems fitted to aircraft, ships and vehicles. An upgrade can be fitted to equipment already in service, so spending here can rise without any new platforms being ordered.
    • Space (stage: Space), 11 stocks: SPCX, RKLB, ASTS, PL, IRDM, LUNR, RDW, FLY, VOYG, KRMN, ECHO. Combined market cap $2.11tn, 43.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.8%, 1 month -13.2%, 3 months -18.7%, 6 months -42.3%, this year so far -21.5%. 1 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 10%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 31.7x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 78.0x. Typical revenue growth: +62.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +32.5%. Typical operating margin: -18.1%. Typical net margin: -38.7%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 67.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +76.3%. How this business works: Launches rockets and builds and operates satellites. Many of these companies are young and not yet profitable, and they depend on a small number of launches or government contracts going well.
    • Cheapest price against next year's expected earnings, of 52 stocks with a figure: EchoStar (ECHO, Space) 3.9x; Oshkosh (OSK, Land and munitions) 9.1x; Leidos (LDOS, Software and services) 9.6x; CSG (CSG.AS, Land and munitions) 10.3x; Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH, Software and services) 10.7x.
  4. 04

    What could break it

    Government IT contractors live on the US budget, which is not settled yet.

    Show the evidence

    The next US defence spending bills are still unfinished, and Booz Allen's sales fell 4.2%, the slowest growth of any stock in the theme.

    • 2026-11-03: US midterm elections. Decides who controls Congress for the FY2028 budget and the unfinished FY2027 appropriations and NDAA, which together set US defence demand.
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Software and services. Market cap $8.6bn, 0.2% of the theme. Price change: 1 day -0.6%, 7 days +4.6%, 1 month -9.2%, 3 months +13.2%, 6 months -11.3%, this year so far -12.8%. In a downtrend: 7.4% below its 200-day line, on that side since 2026-09-18. 34.1% below its 52-week high. Price is 10.7x next year's expected earnings. Price is 11.3x the last year's earnings. Revenue growth, latest quarter on a year before: -4.2%. Earnings-per-share growth: -24.5%. Operating margin 10.0% of sales. Net margin 7.0% of sales. Analysts' average target is +17.4% from the last close (13 analysts, consensus hold). Reports earnings 2026-10-23.
    • Slowest revenue growth, of 59 stocks with a figure: Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH, Software and services) -4.2%; EchoStar (ECHO, Space) -4.0%; Fincantieri (FCT.MI, Naval) -2.7%; Parsons (PSN, Software and services) -0.5%; Renk (R3NK.DE, Land and munitions) +1.7%.
    • Software and services (stage: Software), 7 stocks: PLTR, BAH, LDOS, CACI, SAIC, PSN, BBAI. Combined market cap $531.2bn, 10.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.8%, 1 month -8.8%, 3 months +13.2%, 6 months -11.3%, this year so far -12.8%. 3 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 43%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.2x. Typical revenue growth: +7.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -6.6%. Typical operating margin: 10.0%. Typical net margin: 5.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 34.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +20.7%. How this business works: Sells software, analysis and IT services to defence and intelligence agencies. Most are contractors paid for their staff's time on government contracts, with thin, steady profits tied to the US budget. A few sell software instead and are priced very differently.
  5. 05

    What happens next

    Contractor results this month and next, then the US elections, will test the comeback.

    Show the evidence

    CACI is the first contractor with a results date, on 21 October, followed by Booz Allen, Palantir and Leidos, so watch whether earnings stop shrinking.

    • 2026-10-21: CACI (CACI, Software and services) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-23: Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH, Software and services) reports earnings.
    • 2026-11-02: Palantir (PLTR, Software and services) reports earnings.
    • 2026-11-03: Leidos (LDOS, Software and services) reports earnings.
    • 2026-11-03: US midterm elections. Decides who controls Congress for the FY2028 budget and the unfinished FY2027 appropriations and NDAA, which together set US defence demand.
    • Software and services (stage: Software), 7 stocks: PLTR, BAH, LDOS, CACI, SAIC, PSN, BBAI. Combined market cap $531.2bn, 10.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days +3.8%, 1 month -8.8%, 3 months +13.2%, 6 months -11.3%, this year so far -12.8%. 3 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 43%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 12.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.2x. Typical revenue growth: +7.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -6.6%. Typical operating margin: 10.0%. Typical net margin: 5.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 34.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +20.7%. How this business works: Sells software, analysis and IT services to defence and intelligence agencies. Most are contractors paid for their staff's time on government contracts, with thin, steady profits tied to the US budget. A few sell software instead and are priced very differently.
    • SAIC (SAIC), Software and services. Market cap $5.5bn, 0.1% of the theme. Price change: 1 day -1.3%, 7 days +8.1%, 1 month -0.1%, 3 months +14.5%, 6 months +37.6%, this year so far +32.5%. In an uptrend: 16.0% above its 200-day line, on that side since 2026-06-23. 7.8% below its 52-week high. Price is 11.5x next year's expected earnings. Price is 15.4x the last year's earnings. Revenue growth, latest quarter on a year before: +6.3%. Earnings-per-share growth: -12.2%. Operating margin 8.1% of sales. Net margin 5.1% of sales. Analysts' average target is +0.7% from the last close (9 analysts, consensus hold).

Where it leads

Software and services, and Drones and autonomy

Government IT contractors drew the money over the last three months, while drone stocks show loud Pentagon support failing to reach share prices.

Closest to a screener match · Friday's close, 16 Oct

Software and services

  • PalantirPLTR

    One check short of a pick.

    Not a match
  • CACICACI

    Two checks short of a pick.

    Not a match

Drones and autonomy

  • KratosKTOS

    Three checks short of a pick.

    Not a match

The segment chart, the dates ahead and every Defence & Space stock are on the Defence & Space page.