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The week's story · Week of 26 Oct

Even AI suppliers with good news are being sold

What is the AI Infrastructure theme?

  1. 01

    The surprise

    Even AI suppliers that beat forecasts are being sold.

    Show the evidence

    MaxLinear beat expectations and raised its outlook on data-centre demand, yet closed 13.9% lower as networking and optical names fell together.

    • 2026-10-23 [MXL, MTSI, VIAV, AXTI, COHR]: MaxLinear beat expectations and raised its outlook on data center demand, yet its shares closed 13.9% lower. Why it matters: Good results did not protect the stock, because networking and optical names fell together. MACOM, Viavi, AXT and Coherent all closed down between 12.5% and 15.9%. The market was marking down the whole group, not judging MaxLinear alone.
    • 2026-10-23 [FPS, NVT, ACCV]: Forgent Power Solutions said sales and profit will beat its guidance, but its shares closed 21.5% lower after its finance chief said he was stepping down. Why it matters: Forgent makes electrical equipment for data centers, so a guidance beat points to strong demand for power gear. The shares fell anyway, on the same day as the CFO departure notice. Other data center equipment names, such as nVent and Accelevation, also closed more than 12% lower.
  2. 02

    Where the money went

    The big cloud companies paying for AI fell least this month, while their suppliers fell harder.

    Show the evidence

    Electricity is increasingly called the limit on building AI, yet no power or data-centre infrastructure stock with a trend reading is in an uptrend.

    • Hyperscalers: typical stock down 5.2% over 1 month
    • Power: 0 of 11 in an uptrend, 0%
    • 2026-10-22: New data center deals and power plans appeared across Asia, led by a 500MW letter of intent in Malaysia. Why it matters: Startup neocloud Aolani signed a letter of intent for 500MW in Malaysia, Duos signed a cloud provider for 20MW, and SC Capital Partners invested in a 40MW site in South Korea. Tata Power is targeting 2.8GW of generation, transmission and distribution for India's data centers. The AI build-out is spreading beyond the US, and the limit on it is increasingly electricity and grid supply, which favors power and site-equipment suppliers.
    • 2026-10-26 [CEG, GOOGL]: Constellation Energy pledged 890 MW of added output from its existing plants for Google, citing growing energy needs. Why it matters: Big tech buyers are tying up power supply directly, because electricity is becoming a limit on data center growth. Raising output at existing plants is a faster way to add supply than building new ones. Power stocks have weakened over the week, so the market has not rewarded the theme broadly.
  3. 03

    What is priced in

    Memory is the chain's cheapest part, likely because its huge profits are not expected to last.

    Show the evidence

    The typical memory stock costs 4.6 times next year's expected profit, and memory behaves like a commodity whose profits fall fast when supply catches up.

    • Memory: typical price against next year's expected earnings 4.6x · typical operating margin 52.2%
    • Cheapest price against next year's expected earnings, of 83 stocks: Sandisk (SNDK) 4.6x
  4. 04

    What could break it

    The weak point is getting sites approved: local opposition and permits are halting projects.

    Show the evidence

    Amazon dropped four planned Virginia data centres after local opposition, and slower permits can delay orders for power gear and cooling.

    • 2026-10-24 [AMZN]: Amazon has dropped plans for four new data centers in Northern Virginia after local opposition. Why it matters: Community pushback is a real limit on where AI capacity can be built, even for the biggest spenders. A cancelled site can mean fewer orders for the builders and equipment makers who would have supplied it. Amazon reports earnings on October 29, when its spending plans will be in focus.
    • 2026-10-26: Regulators are pushing back on data center building: Texas suspended 17 construction permits and shut an automated approval portal, and SpaceXAI faces a proposed $6.1 million fine in Mississippi over permits. Why it matters: Permitting is a new source of delay for data center projects. Slower approvals can push back when equipment such as power gear and cooling gets ordered and installed. Data center infrastructure stocks have weakened over the week.
    • 2026-10-24, Tom's Hardware: Texas has suspended 17 data center construction permits and shut down automated portal that rubber-stamped projects. Texas suspended 17 data center construction permits and shut down an automated permitting portal. No listed universe tickers are directly tied to this story. Source
  5. 05

    What happens next

    Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon all report by 29 October, and their spending plans are the test.

    Show the evidence

    Look for next year's data-centre spending, and for signed orders at Vertiv and GE Vernova, which report alongside Microsoft and Alphabet.

    • 2026-10-28: Microsoft (MSFT, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-28: Alphabet (GOOGL, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-29: Amazon (AMZN, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-28: Vertiv (VRT, Data-centre infrastructure) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-28: GE Vernova (GEV, Power) reports earnings.

Where it leads

Data-centre infrastructure and Power

The bottleneck and weak point both sit in buildings and power, where no stock with a trend reading is in an uptrend.

Closest to a screener match · Friday's close, 23 Oct

Data-centre infrastructure

Power

The segment chart, the dates ahead and every AI Infrastructure stock are on the AI Infrastructure page.