The cloud giants held firm while their suppliers were sold

The typical big cloud company's stock slipped 3.1%, a smaller fall than the typical stock in any other part of the chain.

• Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $12.99tn, 39.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -3.1%, 1 month +1.6%, 3 months +1.8%, 6 months -0.2%, this year so far +8.3%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.1x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 33.1%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 13.0%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +26.4%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.
• Compute (stage: Silicon), 10 stocks: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, INTC, QCOM, TXN, TSM, MPWR. Combined market cap $11.12tn, 33.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -10.9%, 1 month -1.0%, 3 months -1.0%, 6 months +24.2%, this year so far +49.3%. 6 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 60%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 28.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 42.1x. Typical revenue growth: +42.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +85.8%. Typical operating margin: 27.1%. Typical net margin: 26.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 30.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +36.5%. How this business works: Designs or manufactures the processors AI runs on, and the chips that sit around them. A handful of cloud companies buy most AI processors, so sales follow what those few customers decide to spend. Some members earn most of their sales outside AI data centres, so their figures say less about AI demand.
• Semiconductor equipment (stage: Tools), 18 stocks: ASML.AS, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, SNPS, CDNS, TER, AMKR, ACLS, AEHR, ASX, CAMT, COHU, ENTG, KLIC, VECO, 8035.T. Combined market cap $1.92tn, 5.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.8%, 1 month -0.7%, 3 months -15.6%, 6 months -2.4%, this year so far +57.2%. 6 of 18 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 33%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 23.4x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 45.5x. Typical revenue growth: +28.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +74.3%. Typical operating margin: 21.5%. Typical net margin: 11.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 39.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +42.5%. How this business works: Makes the machines, materials, design software, testing and packaging that chip makers need. Orders for factory machines arrive when chip makers decide to build capacity, well before the chips are sold, and stop quickly when building pauses.
• Memory (stage: Silicon), 7 stocks: MU, 000660.KS, WDC, SNDK, RMBS, 005930.KS, STX. Combined market cap $3.21tn, 9.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -17.9%, 1 month -15.0%, 3 months -15.5%, 6 months +12.8%, this year so far +95.8%. 2 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 29%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 4.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 17.7x. Typical revenue growth: +130.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +1028.4%. Typical operating margin: 52.2%. Typical net margin: 56.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 44.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +78.1%. How this business works: Makes the memory and storage every AI server needs. Memory is close to a commodity: when supply is short, prices and profits jump, and when new factories catch up they fall just as fast. So a low price against expected profit can mean the market expects profits to fall, not that the stock is cheap. Rambus is the exception: it sells designs and interface chips for memory, not memory itself.
• Networking (stage: Systems), 16 stocks: ANET, CSCO, APH, GLW, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CRDO, AAOI, AXTI, MTSI, MXL, SMTC, VIAV, LITE, FN. Combined market cap $1.27tn, 3.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -25.0%, 1 month -5.3%, 3 months -4.8%, 6 months -6.6%, this year so far +52.2%. 7 of 16 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 44%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 60.2x. Typical revenue growth: +48.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +59.3%. Typical operating margin: 16.8%. Typical net margin: 11.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 44.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +52.5%. How this business works: Makes the switches, cables, connectors and optical parts that link processors to each other. Every new cluster of processors needs networking alongside it, so demand rises and falls with spending on compute.
• Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $465.0bn, 1.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -23.7%, 1 month -5.3%, 3 months +8.0%, 6 months +59.9%, this year so far +77.6%. 4 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 67%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 24.1x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 8.3%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 30.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.9%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
• Data-centre infrastructure (stage: Facilities), 10 stocks: VRT, EQIX, TT, ETN, MOD, NVT, ACCV, FPS, STRL, DLR. Combined market cap $548.4bn, 1.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.1%, 1 month -3.8%, 3 months -8.2%, 6 months -8.5%, this year so far +25.7%. 1 of 8 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 12%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 46.7x. Typical revenue growth: +29.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +36.5%. Typical operating margin: 18.4%. Typical net margin: 12.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 25.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +44.7%. How this business works: Builds, equips and runs the buildings: cooling, power distribution inside the site, construction, and the data centres themselves. Work is sold as long projects, so the orders already signed show what is coming before sales do. Several are broad industrial companies for which data centres are one market among many.
• Power (stage: Facilities), 12 stocks: GEV, CEG, PWR, VST, TLN, ENR.DE, SIE.DE, ABBN.SW, SU.PA, INIO, SEI, GNRC. Combined market cap $1.22tn, 3.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -7.7%, 1 month +0.8%, 3 months -4.0%, 6 months -6.7%, this year so far +15.6%. 6 of 11 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 55%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 20.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 34.7x. Typical revenue growth: +18.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +10.5%. Typical operating margin: 14.8%. Typical net margin: 8.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 24.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +31.1%. How this business works: Generates electricity for data centres, or makes the turbines, grid equipment and backup power they depend on. New supply takes years to build, so demand from AI shows up first in long contracts and order books, and only later in sales. Data centres are a minority of sales for most of these companies.
• Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $90.8bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -24.5%, 1 month -26.2%, 3 months -17.9%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -20.3%. 0 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 129.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.6%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 60.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +158.6%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.
• 2026-10-16 [LRCX, WDC]: Semicap, memory and networking weakened sharply over the past week, and the wider AI infrastructure group has weakened. Why it matters: The selling was widespread. Semicap, memory and networking fell furthest, servers and power weakened, and hyperscalers held firm. Compute weakened only slightly, and neoclouds were already weak. Lam Research reports on 2026-10-21 and Western Digital on 2026-10-22.

Networking fell furthest with no company-specific cause given, while new campuses in Indiana, Iowa and Kentucky kept being approved, bought or announced.

• Networking (stage: Systems), 16 stocks: ANET, CSCO, APH, GLW, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CRDO, AAOI, AXTI, MTSI, MXL, SMTC, VIAV, LITE, FN. Combined market cap $1.27tn, 3.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -25.0%, 1 month -5.3%, 3 months -4.8%, 6 months -6.6%, this year so far +52.2%. 7 of 16 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 44%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 60.2x. Typical revenue growth: +48.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +59.3%. Typical operating margin: 16.8%. Typical net margin: 11.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 44.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +52.5%. How this business works: Makes the switches, cables, connectors and optical parts that link processors to each other. Every new cluster of processors needs networking alongside it, so demand rises and falls with spending on compute.
• Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $465.0bn, 1.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -23.7%, 1 month -5.3%, 3 months +8.0%, 6 months +59.9%, this year so far +77.6%. 4 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 67%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 24.1x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 8.3%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 30.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.9%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
• Semiconductor equipment (stage: Tools), 18 stocks: ASML.AS, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, SNPS, CDNS, TER, AMKR, ACLS, AEHR, ASX, CAMT, COHU, ENTG, KLIC, VECO, 8035.T. Combined market cap $1.92tn, 5.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.8%, 1 month -0.7%, 3 months -15.6%, 6 months -2.4%, this year so far +57.2%. 6 of 18 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 33%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 23.4x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 45.5x. Typical revenue growth: +28.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +74.3%. Typical operating margin: 21.5%. Typical net margin: 11.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 39.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +42.5%. How this business works: Makes the machines, materials, design software, testing and packaging that chip makers need. Orders for factory machines arrive when chip makers decide to build capacity, well before the chips are sold, and stop quickly when building pauses.
• Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $90.8bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -24.5%, 1 month -26.2%, 3 months -17.9%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -20.3%. 0 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 129.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.6%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 60.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +158.6%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.
• 2026-10-13 [SMTC, CIEN, AXTI, AAOI, VIAV, COHR, MXL, CRDO, MTSI]: Optical and networking stocks sold off hard: Semtech fell 10.2%, Ciena 9.9%, AXT 9.5%, Applied Optoelectronics and Viavi 8.2% each. Why it matters: Ten of the twelve biggest decliners were networking names, so the selling hit the optical and connectivity layer of AI buildouts rather than the whole trade. Coherent, MaxLinear, Credo and MACOM also fell 7% to 8%. The pack names no company-specific trigger, so this reads as a sector-wide de-rating.
• 2026-10-16 [PENG, HPE, DELL, SMTC, MTSI, AXTI, SEI, CRWV]: Server and networking names fell sharply: Penguin Solutions down 8.5%, HPE 7.1%, Dell 6.8%, Semtech 10.0%, MACOM 6.8%, AXT 6.0%. Why it matters: Servers and networking sit downstream of data center build-outs, so the selling reached the hardware that gets bought once capacity is financed. Solaris Energy Infrastructure also fell 6.1%, which shows the weakness touched power as well. CoreWeave closed 5.9% higher on the same day, the one notable gain in the pack.
• 2026-10-15 [MSFT, IREN]: Physical buildout news kept coming: Google's Indiana power project was approved, Microsoft bought Iowa land, and several campuses were filed or financed. Why it matters: Indiana regulators approved AES Indiana's $1.3bn solar, storage and transmission plan for a Google data center. Microsoft acquired 600 acres in Woodward, Iowa. Digi Power X secured $200m of debt financing in Alabama, Soluna filed for a 112MW building in Texas, and an application was filed for a 3.3 million sq ft campus in Augusta, Georgia. The project pipeline was unaffected by the price action, but none of these items moved the stocks on the day.
• 2026-10-16 [META, DLR]: Data center demand news continued: Meta was named behind a 3,000-acre Kentucky project, DigiCo signed a 71MW Sydney lease, and Digital Realty topped out a second Seoul site. Why it matters: These are routine build-out and leasing items that show capacity is still being added, and they stand against a day of heavy selling in hardware. Meta reports earnings on 2026-10-21, where its spending plans will be in focus.

The typical memory stock costs 4.9 times next year's expected profit, which for a near-commodity business often means profits are expected to fall.

• Memory (stage: Silicon), 7 stocks: MU, 000660.KS, WDC, SNDK, RMBS, 005930.KS, STX. Combined market cap $3.21tn, 9.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -17.9%, 1 month -15.0%, 3 months -15.5%, 6 months +12.8%, this year so far +95.8%. 2 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 29%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 4.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 17.7x. Typical revenue growth: +130.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +1028.4%. Typical operating margin: 52.2%. Typical net margin: 56.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 44.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +78.1%. How this business works: Makes the memory and storage every AI server needs. Memory is close to a commodity: when supply is short, prices and profits jump, and when new factories catch up they fall just as fast. So a low price against expected profit can mean the market expects profits to fall, not that the stock is cheap. Rambus is the exception: it sells designs and interface chips for memory, not memory itself.
• Cheapest price against next year's expected earnings, of 83 stocks with a figure: SK Hynix (000660.KS, Memory) 2.7x; Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, Memory) 3.0x; Micron (MU, Memory) 4.2x; Sandisk (SNDK, Memory) 4.9x; Supermicro (SMCI, Servers) 5.9x.
• Highest operating margin, of 88 stocks with a figure: SK Hynix (000660.KS, Memory) 76.3%; Micron (MU, Memory) 74.6%; NVIDIA (NVDA, Compute) 65.2%; Sandisk (SNDK, Memory) 61.2%; TSMC (TSM, Compute) 58.7%.
• Compute (stage: Silicon), 10 stocks: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, INTC, QCOM, TXN, TSM, MPWR. Combined market cap $11.12tn, 33.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -10.9%, 1 month -1.0%, 3 months -1.0%, 6 months +24.2%, this year so far +49.3%. 6 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 60%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 28.6x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 42.1x. Typical revenue growth: +42.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +85.8%. Typical operating margin: 27.1%. Typical net margin: 26.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 30.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +36.5%. How this business works: Designs or manufactures the processors AI runs on, and the chips that sit around them. A handful of cloud companies buy most AI processors, so sales follow what those few customers decide to spend. Some members earn most of their sales outside AI data centres, so their figures say less about AI demand.
• Semiconductor equipment (stage: Tools), 18 stocks: ASML.AS, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, SNPS, CDNS, TER, AMKR, ACLS, AEHR, ASX, CAMT, COHU, ENTG, KLIC, VECO, 8035.T. Combined market cap $1.92tn, 5.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.8%, 1 month -0.7%, 3 months -15.6%, 6 months -2.4%, this year so far +57.2%. 6 of 18 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 33%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 23.4x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 45.5x. Typical revenue growth: +28.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +74.3%. Typical operating margin: 21.5%. Typical net margin: 11.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 39.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +42.5%. How this business works: Makes the machines, materials, design software, testing and packaging that chip makers need. Orders for factory machines arrive when chip makers decide to build capacity, well before the chips are sold, and stop quickly when building pauses.
• Networking (stage: Systems), 16 stocks: ANET, CSCO, APH, GLW, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CRDO, AAOI, AXTI, MTSI, MXL, SMTC, VIAV, LITE, FN. Combined market cap $1.27tn, 3.9% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -25.0%, 1 month -5.3%, 3 months -4.8%, 6 months -6.6%, this year so far +52.2%. 7 of 16 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 44%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.9x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 60.2x. Typical revenue growth: +48.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +59.3%. Typical operating margin: 16.8%. Typical net margin: 11.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 44.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +52.5%. How this business works: Makes the switches, cables, connectors and optical parts that link processors to each other. Every new cluster of processors needs networking alongside it, so demand rises and falls with spending on compute.
• Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $465.0bn, 1.4% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -23.7%, 1 month -5.3%, 3 months +8.0%, 6 months +59.9%, this year so far +77.6%. 4 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 67%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 11.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 24.1x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 8.3%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 30.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.9%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
• Data-centre infrastructure (stage: Facilities), 10 stocks: VRT, EQIX, TT, ETN, MOD, NVT, ACCV, FPS, STRL, DLR. Combined market cap $548.4bn, 1.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -15.1%, 1 month -3.8%, 3 months -8.2%, 6 months -8.5%, this year so far +25.7%. 1 of 8 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 12%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 46.7x. Typical revenue growth: +29.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +36.5%. Typical operating margin: 18.4%. Typical net margin: 12.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 25.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +44.7%. How this business works: Builds, equips and runs the buildings: cooling, power distribution inside the site, construction, and the data centres themselves. Work is sold as long projects, so the orders already signed show what is coming before sales do. Several are broad industrial companies for which data centres are one market among many.
• Power (stage: Facilities), 12 stocks: GEV, CEG, PWR, VST, TLN, ENR.DE, SIE.DE, ABBN.SW, SU.PA, INIO, SEI, GNRC. Combined market cap $1.22tn, 3.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -7.7%, 1 month +0.8%, 3 months -4.0%, 6 months -6.7%, this year so far +15.6%. 6 of 11 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 55%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 20.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 34.7x. Typical revenue growth: +18.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +10.5%. Typical operating margin: 14.8%. Typical net margin: 8.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 24.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +31.1%. How this business works: Generates electricity for data centres, or makes the turbines, grid equipment and backup power they depend on. New supply takes years to build, so demand from AI shows up first in long contracts and order books, and only later in sales. Data centres are a minority of sales for most of these companies.
• Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $12.99tn, 39.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -3.1%, 1 month +1.6%, 3 months +1.8%, 6 months -0.2%, this year so far +8.3%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.1x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 33.1%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 13.0%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +26.4%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.
• Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $90.8bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -24.5%, 1 month -26.2%, 3 months -17.9%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -20.3%. 0 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 129.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.6%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 60.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +158.6%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.

The typical one is down 26.2% in a month and loses money on its sales, and none of them is in an uptrend.

• Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $90.8bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -24.5%, 1 month -26.2%, 3 months -17.9%, 6 months -43.3%, this year so far -20.3%. 0 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 0%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 129.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.6%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 60.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +158.6%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.
• 2026-10-15 [CRWV, IREN, NBIS]: Neoclouds led a sharp selloff: CoreWeave closed 15.5% lower, IREN 12.2% and Nebius 10.1%. Why it matters: These are the most leveraged expressions of AI compute demand, so they take the hardest hit when the trade de-risks. The pack has no company-specific news explaining the drop, which points to a sector-wide move rather than a single-name problem. IREN fell even as it announced a 900MW campus target in Australia, so new capacity plans did not support the shares.

Microsoft and Alphabet follow on 28 October and Amazon the next day, and their spending plans are what the rest of the chain depends on.

• 2026-10-21: Meta (META, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-28: Microsoft (MSFT, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-28: Alphabet (GOOGL, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
• 2026-10-29: Amazon (AMZN, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
• Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $12.99tn, 39.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -3.1%, 1 month +1.6%, 3 months +1.8%, 6 months -0.2%, this year so far +8.3%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.1x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 33.1%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 13.0%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +26.4%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.