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The week's story · Week of 12 Oct

The cloud giants held firm while their suppliers sold off

What is the AI Infrastructure theme?

  1. 01

    The surprise

    AI suppliers sold off hard this week, but the typical cloud giant paying them barely moved.

    Show the evidence

    The typical networking stock fell 18.9%, while the cloud giants fell less than any other part of the chain.

    • Networking (stage: Systems), 16 stocks: ANET, CSCO, APH, GLW, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CRDO, AAOI, AXTI, MTSI, MXL, SMTC, VIAV, LITE, FN. Combined market cap $1.37tn, 4.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -18.9%, 1 month +7.6%, 3 months -7.6%, 6 months +7.6%, this year so far +65.8%. 10 of 16 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 62%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 26.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 64.1x. Typical revenue growth: +48.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +59.3%. Typical operating margin: 17.7%. Typical net margin: 11.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 39.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +36.5%. How this business works: Makes the switches, cables, connectors and optical parts that link processors to each other. Every new cluster of processors needs networking alongside it, so demand rises and falls with spending on compute.
    • Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $13.23tn, 38.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.8%, 1 month +0.2%, 3 months -0.3%, 6 months +3.2%, this year so far +11.1%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.5x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 34.8%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +23.8%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.
    • Compute (stage: Silicon), 10 stocks: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, INTC, QCOM, TXN, TSM, MPWR. Combined market cap $11.61tn, 34.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -10.3%, 1 month +4.0%, 3 months -3.9%, 6 months +30.6%, this year so far +53.4%. 6 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 60%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 30.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 44.2x. Typical revenue growth: +36.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +85.8%. Typical operating margin: 24.8%. Typical net margin: 26.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 26.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.3%. How this business works: Designs or manufactures the processors AI runs on, and the chips that sit around them. A handful of cloud companies buy most AI processors, so sales follow what those few customers decide to spend. Some members earn most of their sales outside AI data centres, so their figures say less about AI demand.
    • Semiconductor equipment (stage: Tools), 18 stocks: ASML.AS, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, SNPS, CDNS, TER, AMKR, ACLS, AEHR, ASX, CAMT, COHU, ENTG, KLIC, VECO, 8035.T. Combined market cap $2.03tn, 6.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -11.9%, 1 month +7.9%, 3 months -16.3%, 6 months +7.9%, this year so far +66.4%. 11 of 18 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 61%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 25.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 51.3x. Typical revenue growth: +26.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +42.8%. Typical operating margin: 21.5%. Typical net margin: 11.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 35.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.4%. How this business works: Makes the machines, materials, design software, testing and packaging that chip makers need. Orders for factory machines arrive when chip makers decide to build capacity, well before the chips are sold, and stop quickly when building pauses.
    • Memory (stage: Silicon), 7 stocks: MU, 000660.KS, WDC, SNDK, RMBS, 005930.KS, STX. Combined market cap $3.42tn, 10.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -16.0%, 1 month -9.6%, 3 months -13.8%, 6 months +25.0%, this year so far +118.5%. 4 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 57%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 5.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 19.1x. Typical revenue growth: +130.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +1028.4%. Typical operating margin: 52.2%. Typical net margin: 56.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 40.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +70.7%. How this business works: Makes the memory and storage every AI server needs. Memory is close to a commodity: when supply is short, prices and profits jump, and when new factories catch up they fall just as fast. So a low price against expected profit can mean the market expects profits to fall, not that the stock is cheap. Rambus is the exception: it sells designs and interface chips for memory, not memory itself.
    • Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $517.8bn, 1.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -12.4%, 1 month +1.1%, 3 months +10.6%, 6 months +93.1%, this year so far +94.5%. 6 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 100%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 13.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 27.8x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 12.1%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 25.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +18.1%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
    • Data-centre infrastructure (stage: Facilities), 10 stocks: VRT, EQIX, TT, ETN, MOD, NVT, ACCV, FPS, STRL, DLR. Combined market cap $567.5bn, 1.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -8.1%, 1 month -0.3%, 3 months -4.1%, 6 months -0.7%, this year so far +30.7%. 4 of 8 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 50%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 24.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 50.4x. Typical revenue growth: +29.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +36.5%. Typical operating margin: 19.6%. Typical net margin: 12.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 19.7%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +34.6%. How this business works: Builds, equips and runs the buildings: cooling, power distribution inside the site, construction, and the data centres themselves. Work is sold as long projects, so the orders already signed show what is coming before sales do. Several are broad industrial companies for which data centres are one market among many.
    • Power (stage: Facilities), 12 stocks: GEV, CEG, PWR, VST, TLN, ENR.DE, SIE.DE, ABBN.SW, SU.PA, INIO, SEI, GNRC. Combined market cap $1.25tn, 3.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -5.7%, 1 month +5.9%, 3 months -5.9%, 6 months +0.4%, this year so far +19.3%. 6 of 11 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 55%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 21.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 36.2x. Typical revenue growth: +18.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +10.5%. Typical operating margin: 13.4%. Typical net margin: 8.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 20.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.5%. How this business works: Generates electricity for data centres, or makes the turbines, grid equipment and backup power they depend on. New supply takes years to build, so demand from AI shows up first in long contracts and order books, and only later in sales. Data centres are a minority of sales for most of these companies.
    • Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $100.4bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -21.3%, 1 month -19.0%, 3 months -17.4%, 6 months -35.7%, this year so far -12.6%. 1 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 25%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 145.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.1%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 58.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +135.4%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.
    • 2026-10-15 [TSM, LRCX, TXN, META]: Sector strength fell sharply over the week, with servers and hyperscalers the exceptions. Why it matters: Compute, memory and networking went from fully strengthening to clearly weakening. Semicap and power also weakened sharply, data center infrastructure weakened more mildly, and neoclouds were already weak and slipped further. Servers and hyperscalers held firm. Next week TSMC reports on 2026-10-15, then Lam Research, Texas Instruments and Meta on 2026-10-21, which are the next company-level read on demand.
  2. 02

    Where the money went

    Over three months, servers were the only segment whose typical stock rose.

    Show the evidence

    Every server maker is in an uptrend, and the typical one gained 10.6%, with HPE, Supermicro and Dell among the best of all.

    • Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $517.8bn, 1.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -12.4%, 1 month +1.1%, 3 months +10.6%, 6 months +93.1%, this year so far +94.5%. 6 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 100%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 13.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 27.8x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 12.1%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 25.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +18.1%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
    • Compute (stage: Silicon), 10 stocks: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, INTC, QCOM, TXN, TSM, MPWR. Combined market cap $11.61tn, 34.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -10.3%, 1 month +4.0%, 3 months -3.9%, 6 months +30.6%, this year so far +53.4%. 6 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 60%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 30.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 44.2x. Typical revenue growth: +36.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +85.8%. Typical operating margin: 24.8%. Typical net margin: 26.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 26.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.3%. How this business works: Designs or manufactures the processors AI runs on, and the chips that sit around them. A handful of cloud companies buy most AI processors, so sales follow what those few customers decide to spend. Some members earn most of their sales outside AI data centres, so their figures say less about AI demand.
    • Semiconductor equipment (stage: Tools), 18 stocks: ASML.AS, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, SNPS, CDNS, TER, AMKR, ACLS, AEHR, ASX, CAMT, COHU, ENTG, KLIC, VECO, 8035.T. Combined market cap $2.03tn, 6.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -11.9%, 1 month +7.9%, 3 months -16.3%, 6 months +7.9%, this year so far +66.4%. 11 of 18 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 61%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 25.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 51.3x. Typical revenue growth: +26.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +42.8%. Typical operating margin: 21.5%. Typical net margin: 11.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 35.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.4%. How this business works: Makes the machines, materials, design software, testing and packaging that chip makers need. Orders for factory machines arrive when chip makers decide to build capacity, well before the chips are sold, and stop quickly when building pauses.
    • Memory (stage: Silicon), 7 stocks: MU, 000660.KS, WDC, SNDK, RMBS, 005930.KS, STX. Combined market cap $3.42tn, 10.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -16.0%, 1 month -9.6%, 3 months -13.8%, 6 months +25.0%, this year so far +118.5%. 4 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 57%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 5.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 19.1x. Typical revenue growth: +130.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +1028.4%. Typical operating margin: 52.2%. Typical net margin: 56.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 40.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +70.7%. How this business works: Makes the memory and storage every AI server needs. Memory is close to a commodity: when supply is short, prices and profits jump, and when new factories catch up they fall just as fast. So a low price against expected profit can mean the market expects profits to fall, not that the stock is cheap. Rambus is the exception: it sells designs and interface chips for memory, not memory itself.
    • Networking (stage: Systems), 16 stocks: ANET, CSCO, APH, GLW, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CRDO, AAOI, AXTI, MTSI, MXL, SMTC, VIAV, LITE, FN. Combined market cap $1.37tn, 4.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -18.9%, 1 month +7.6%, 3 months -7.6%, 6 months +7.6%, this year so far +65.8%. 10 of 16 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 62%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 26.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 64.1x. Typical revenue growth: +48.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +59.3%. Typical operating margin: 17.7%. Typical net margin: 11.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 39.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +36.5%. How this business works: Makes the switches, cables, connectors and optical parts that link processors to each other. Every new cluster of processors needs networking alongside it, so demand rises and falls with spending on compute.
    • Data-centre infrastructure (stage: Facilities), 10 stocks: VRT, EQIX, TT, ETN, MOD, NVT, ACCV, FPS, STRL, DLR. Combined market cap $567.5bn, 1.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -8.1%, 1 month -0.3%, 3 months -4.1%, 6 months -0.7%, this year so far +30.7%. 4 of 8 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 50%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 24.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 50.4x. Typical revenue growth: +29.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +36.5%. Typical operating margin: 19.6%. Typical net margin: 12.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 19.7%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +34.6%. How this business works: Builds, equips and runs the buildings: cooling, power distribution inside the site, construction, and the data centres themselves. Work is sold as long projects, so the orders already signed show what is coming before sales do. Several are broad industrial companies for which data centres are one market among many.
    • Power (stage: Facilities), 12 stocks: GEV, CEG, PWR, VST, TLN, ENR.DE, SIE.DE, ABBN.SW, SU.PA, INIO, SEI, GNRC. Combined market cap $1.25tn, 3.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -5.7%, 1 month +5.9%, 3 months -5.9%, 6 months +0.4%, this year so far +19.3%. 6 of 11 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 55%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 21.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 36.2x. Typical revenue growth: +18.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +10.5%. Typical operating margin: 13.4%. Typical net margin: 8.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 20.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.5%. How this business works: Generates electricity for data centres, or makes the turbines, grid equipment and backup power they depend on. New supply takes years to build, so demand from AI shows up first in long contracts and order books, and only later in sales. Data centres are a minority of sales for most of these companies.
    • Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $13.23tn, 38.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.8%, 1 month +0.2%, 3 months -0.3%, 6 months +3.2%, this year so far +11.1%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.5x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 34.8%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +23.8%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.
    • Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $100.4bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -21.3%, 1 month -19.0%, 3 months -17.4%, 6 months -35.7%, this year so far -12.6%. 1 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 25%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 145.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.1%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 58.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +135.4%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.
    • Best price change over 3 months, of 87 stocks with a figure: Microsoft (MSFT, Hyperscalers) +35.1%; HPE (HPE, Servers) +33.2%; Supermicro (SMCI, Servers) +33.1%; Dell Technologies (DELL, Servers) +23.3%; Lumentum (LITE, Networking) +19.2%.
  3. 03

    What is priced in

    Server makers look cheap against the chain, but they keep little of each sale.

    Show the evidence

    The typical one costs 13.1 times next year's expected profit, and most of each selling price passes straight to the chip makers.

    • Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $517.8bn, 1.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -12.4%, 1 month +1.1%, 3 months +10.6%, 6 months +93.1%, this year so far +94.5%. 6 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 100%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 13.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 27.8x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 12.1%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 25.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +18.1%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
    • The typical stock across the whole theme (median): price change this year so far +48.0%; price change over 3 months -6.8%; price change over 1 month +4.2%; price against next year's expected earnings 21.6x; revenue growth +34.5%; operating margin 18.1%; net margin 11.8%.
  4. 04

    What could break it

    Not every buyer held up: the newer chip renters, which borrow to buy, fell hardest.

    Show the evidence

    The typical neocloud stock fell 21.3% this week, and the typical one runs at a loss while most pay for chips with borrowed money.

    • Neoclouds (stage: Demand), 4 stocks: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN. Combined market cap $100.4bn, 0.3% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -21.3%, 1 month -19.0%, 3 months -17.4%, 6 months -35.7%, this year so far -12.6%. 1 of 4 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 25%. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 145.3x. Typical revenue growth: +217.4%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: -360.2%. Typical operating margin: -10.1%. Typical net margin: -39.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 58.1%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +135.4%. How this business works: Newer companies that buy processors and rent them out as AI computing. Most pay for the processors with borrowed money and rely on a few large customers, which leaves them exposed if demand slows.
    • 2026-10-15 [CRWV, IREN, NBIS]: Neoclouds led a sharp selloff: CoreWeave closed 15.5% lower, IREN 12.2% and Nebius 10.1%. Why it matters: These are the most leveraged expressions of AI compute demand, so they take the hardest hit when the trade de-risks. The pack has no company-specific news explaining the drop, which points to a sector-wide move rather than a single-name problem. IREN fell even as it announced a 900MW campus target in Australia, so new capacity plans did not support the shares.
    • Compute (stage: Silicon), 10 stocks: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, INTC, QCOM, TXN, TSM, MPWR. Combined market cap $11.61tn, 34.1% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -10.3%, 1 month +4.0%, 3 months -3.9%, 6 months +30.6%, this year so far +53.4%. 6 of 10 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 60%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 30.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 44.2x. Typical revenue growth: +36.3%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +85.8%. Typical operating margin: 24.8%. Typical net margin: 26.2%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 26.6%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.3%. How this business works: Designs or manufactures the processors AI runs on, and the chips that sit around them. A handful of cloud companies buy most AI processors, so sales follow what those few customers decide to spend. Some members earn most of their sales outside AI data centres, so their figures say less about AI demand.
    • Semiconductor equipment (stage: Tools), 18 stocks: ASML.AS, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, SNPS, CDNS, TER, AMKR, ACLS, AEHR, ASX, CAMT, COHU, ENTG, KLIC, VECO, 8035.T. Combined market cap $2.03tn, 6.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -11.9%, 1 month +7.9%, 3 months -16.3%, 6 months +7.9%, this year so far +66.4%. 11 of 18 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 61%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 25.0x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 51.3x. Typical revenue growth: +26.1%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +42.8%. Typical operating margin: 21.5%. Typical net margin: 11.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 35.9%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +32.4%. How this business works: Makes the machines, materials, design software, testing and packaging that chip makers need. Orders for factory machines arrive when chip makers decide to build capacity, well before the chips are sold, and stop quickly when building pauses.
    • Memory (stage: Silicon), 7 stocks: MU, 000660.KS, WDC, SNDK, RMBS, 005930.KS, STX. Combined market cap $3.42tn, 10.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -16.0%, 1 month -9.6%, 3 months -13.8%, 6 months +25.0%, this year so far +118.5%. 4 of 7 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 57%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 5.3x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 19.1x. Typical revenue growth: +130.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +1028.4%. Typical operating margin: 52.2%. Typical net margin: 56.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 40.4%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +70.7%. How this business works: Makes the memory and storage every AI server needs. Memory is close to a commodity: when supply is short, prices and profits jump, and when new factories catch up they fall just as fast. So a low price against expected profit can mean the market expects profits to fall, not that the stock is cheap. Rambus is the exception: it sells designs and interface chips for memory, not memory itself.
    • Networking (stage: Systems), 16 stocks: ANET, CSCO, APH, GLW, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CRDO, AAOI, AXTI, MTSI, MXL, SMTC, VIAV, LITE, FN. Combined market cap $1.37tn, 4.0% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -18.9%, 1 month +7.6%, 3 months -7.6%, 6 months +7.6%, this year so far +65.8%. 10 of 16 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 62%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 26.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 64.1x. Typical revenue growth: +48.6%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +59.3%. Typical operating margin: 17.7%. Typical net margin: 11.3%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 39.2%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +36.5%. How this business works: Makes the switches, cables, connectors and optical parts that link processors to each other. Every new cluster of processors needs networking alongside it, so demand rises and falls with spending on compute.
    • Servers (stage: Systems), 6 stocks: DELL, SMCI, HPE, PENG, CLS.TO, 2382.TW. Combined market cap $517.8bn, 1.5% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -12.4%, 1 month +1.1%, 3 months +10.6%, 6 months +93.1%, this year so far +94.5%. 6 of 6 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 100%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 13.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 27.8x. Typical revenue growth: +65.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +338.9%. Typical operating margin: 12.1%. Typical net margin: 6.9%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 25.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +18.1%. How this business works: Assembles processors, memory and networking into finished machines and sells them to data-centre operators. Most of the selling price passes straight through to the chip makers, so profit on each sale is thin and a rise in the cost of parts cuts into it quickly.
    • Data-centre infrastructure (stage: Facilities), 10 stocks: VRT, EQIX, TT, ETN, MOD, NVT, ACCV, FPS, STRL, DLR. Combined market cap $567.5bn, 1.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -8.1%, 1 month -0.3%, 3 months -4.1%, 6 months -0.7%, this year so far +30.7%. 4 of 8 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 50%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 24.2x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 50.4x. Typical revenue growth: +29.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +36.5%. Typical operating margin: 19.6%. Typical net margin: 12.6%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 19.7%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +34.6%. How this business works: Builds, equips and runs the buildings: cooling, power distribution inside the site, construction, and the data centres themselves. Work is sold as long projects, so the orders already signed show what is coming before sales do. Several are broad industrial companies for which data centres are one market among many.
    • Power (stage: Facilities), 12 stocks: GEV, CEG, PWR, VST, TLN, ENR.DE, SIE.DE, ABBN.SW, SU.PA, INIO, SEI, GNRC. Combined market cap $1.25tn, 3.7% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -5.7%, 1 month +5.9%, 3 months -5.9%, 6 months +0.4%, this year so far +19.3%. 6 of 11 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 55%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 21.1x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 36.2x. Typical revenue growth: +18.0%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +10.5%. Typical operating margin: 13.4%. Typical net margin: 8.5%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 20.8%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +28.5%. How this business works: Generates electricity for data centres, or makes the turbines, grid equipment and backup power they depend on. New supply takes years to build, so demand from AI shows up first in long contracts and order books, and only later in sales. Data centres are a minority of sales for most of these companies.
    • Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $13.23tn, 38.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.8%, 1 month +0.2%, 3 months -0.3%, 6 months +3.2%, this year so far +11.1%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.5x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 34.8%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +23.8%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.
  5. 05

    What happens next

    Meta reports on 21 October, then Microsoft and Alphabet; watch next year's spending plans.

    Show the evidence

    Microsoft and Alphabet follow on 28 October, and what they say they will spend is the number the rest of the chain depends on.

    • 2026-10-21: Meta (META, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-28: Microsoft (MSFT, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
    • 2026-10-28: Alphabet (GOOGL, Hyperscalers) reports earnings.
    • Hyperscalers (stage: Demand), 5 stocks: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Combined market cap $13.23tn, 38.8% of the theme. Price change of the typical stock (median): 7 days -0.8%, 1 month +0.2%, 3 months -0.3%, 6 months +3.2%, this year so far +11.1%. 4 of 5 are in an uptrend (above their 200-day line), 80%. Typical price against next year's expected earnings: 22.5x. Typical price against the last year's earnings: 20.5x. Typical revenue growth: +24.2%. Typical earnings-per-share growth: +54.5%. Typical operating margin: 34.8%. Typical net margin: 29.8%. Typical distance below 52-week high: 11.5%. Typical gap to analysts' average target: +23.8%. How this business works: The large cloud companies whose spending pays for most of the chain. AI is one part of much bigger businesses, so their share prices move for many reasons that have nothing to do with it. What they say they will spend next year is the number the rest of the chain depends on.

Where it leads

Servers and Hyperscalers

Servers are the one segment whose typical stock rose over three months, and their fate rests on what the cloud giants say they will spend.

Closest to a screener match · Friday's close, 16 Oct

Servers

  • CelesticaCLS.TO

    One check short of a pick.

    Not a match

Hyperscalers

  • AmazonAMZN

    One check short of a pick.

    Not a match
  • AlphabetGOOGL

    One check short of a pick.

    Not a match

The segment chart, the dates ahead and every AI Infrastructure stock are on the AI Infrastructure page.